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Slides, Climate Change, Further Topics
Antarctic Circumpolar Current Increased heat transport from equator to poles means increased wind speeds, and cooler circumpolar temp. Ekman Pumping
CO2, Methane & Oil Capture Methane & oil captured for usage while CO2 stored. Capture and Sequestration of Carbon Dioxide
www.co2captureproject.org/technologies/tech_indexP2.htm
Reduced emissions Enhanced oil recovery Enhanced gas recovery CO2 Capture • Although CO2 capture implemented in power plants abroad now, if tech is still judged insufficiently proven in USA, could build power plants “CO2 capture ready” to enable retrofit in near future. • Build to scrub more sulfur from the flue gas emissions than regulations require, since low sulfur level needed for CO2 capture. • Build highest possible thermal efficiency plants.
Subcritical steam technology relatively inefficient. US utilities experienced poor plant reliability using supercritical steam in 1960s, before all the bugs had been ironed out. Supercritical steam technology more efficient by around 20%, has been well proven in power plants in Europe and Japan, better suited to CO2 capture. • Leave spare land on site for location of the CO2 capture equipment to be installed in near future.
www.21st-strategies.comwww.ieagreen.org.uk
Investment versus Impacts • Coal releases more CO2 per unit of energy than any other source. • However, coal burning will represent the major increase in fossil fuel usage through 2100. • Investment in CO2 capture by power stations, and in other efforts to reduce emissions or transition to renewable energy sources costs far less than damages due to emissions increasing warming, melting, sea level, and storm severity.
Cheap Coal, High Cost Remnants of mountains at the Hobet 21 stripmine Ohio Valley Environmental Coalition, West Virginia
Examples of Proposed CO2 Capture Projects • BP Carson DF2 project, California- 500 MW petroleum coke gasification, pre- combustion capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start-up 2011 • Future Gen project, USA- 275 MW coal IGCC, pre-combustion capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012 • Saskpower project, Saskatchewan, Canada- 300 MW lignite fired power plant, oxy-combustion CO2 for EOR or saline reservoir storage: Start up 2011 • BP Miller-Peterhead DF1 project, UK- 475 MW natural gas fired power plant, pre-combustion capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start up 2010 • Centrica project, UK- 800 MW coal-fired power plant, pre-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start up 2011 • RWE project, Germany- 450 MW coal IGCC, pre-combustion capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012 • France's Eramet, U.S. Alcan and Norway's Norsk Hydro, Norway- 400 MW coal-fired power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011 • Shell/Statoil Halten project, Norway- 860 MW natural gas power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011
Ethanol • Requires methane (natural gas) in processing. • Still use diesel trucks to transport ethanol. • Corn kernels are too high value in terms of fossil fuels used in production of corn, & as food. • Need low cost, high volume production of enzymes to convert the fibers in stalks into sugars for fermentation into ethanol. • Switchgrass can be grown on marginal land of little use for food production. • Not a good solution until enzymes become available to digest prairie grass, and corn stalks.
Climate Models • Generally higher confidence in larger scale projections and greater uncertainty at increasingly small scales.
Natural Drivers vs. Human Forcing Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Tony Blair, MP
Meehl, G.A. in Climate 17: 3721-3727 Contributions to net radiative forcing change, 1750-2004: Changes in Irradiance Small Effect
Urban Heat Island Effect Rate of growth of urban pop. not continuing to accelerate as are temp and repercussions such as melting. Largest temp increase in Arctic. So reject Urban Heat Island effect hypothesis that measurements of temp biased to show temp increases, despite compensation for urban heat islands. www.un.org/esa/population/publications/WUP2005/2005wup.htm
Urban growth accelerating, less rapidly
• Measured global average temp is accelerating beyond urban population curve. • Greatest increase in temp in Arctic. • Melting of sea ice, worldwide glacial mass • Therefore not true that measurements of temp biased to show temp increases despite compensation for urban heat islands.
Cosmic Rays and Surface Temperatures
NOAA, Climatic Research Unit
www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2006/10/taking-cosmic-rays-for-a-spin/
T increasing while CRs vary with little correlation with T.
Green Buildings
Passive solar design for green buildings (www.nesea.org).
Energy audit consultants could assess building performance (Performance Systems Contracting in Ithaca) to identify priority improvements.
Buildings can be made more efficient by plugging air leaks and improving insulation, resulting in substantial savings, since cooling and heating cost the majority of building energy expenses.
Houses can become power producers via the renewables listed above. Solar power economical even in New York State.
Heating/Cooling Green Buildings • Passive solar design: windows on S side. Utilize overhangs to shade during summer, yet allow light from lower sun into interior during winter. Thermal mass (dark colored concrete, brick) absorbs and stores heat; releases slowly at night in winter. Cools during day in summer. Moderates temp extremes (www.nesea.org). • Plant trees to block wind in winter, cool in summer. • Bring insulation, installations up to Energy Star. • Base heating on solar thermal or geothermal. • Fuel pros and cons: Methane (natural gas) most efficient, cleanest fossil fuel, but increases C pool used in C cycle. Wood particulates harm health, so not a large scale solution. Also draws C from storage in trees.
Commitment to Long-Term Impacts • With higher CO2 emissions peak & extent, impacts are longer term, greater severity.
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, TonyBlair, MP
Broad Range of Temp Scenarios Δ5.8°C Δ1°C
2050 Range of predictions Water vapor feedback included. Methane hydrate feedbacks not included. Higher predictions with lesser transition scenarios. Melting of Greenland’s Ice Sheet • Over last 20 years temps increased by ~ 5.4°F (3°C) along SE coast of Greenland • Snowmelt in 2005 most extensive on record • Water denser than ice, forms through-holes. • Water from moulins lubricates, warms base of ice sheet. • Lubrication accelerates glacial sliding speed.
Figure by NOAA CIRES
Entire sheet: Sea↑ 7m~22ft Moulins weaken structure
Vast West Antarctic Ice Sheet • Over a third rests on bedrock as far as 2 km below sea level. • Moulins conduct surface water to base. Hydrostatic lift could cause runaway crumbling & discharge into sea, ultimately raising sea level 3m, due to GHG emissions & warming.
Predictions of crumbling based on computer modeling extremely difficult to make. • Sea level could rise faster than predicted based on modeling that does not include crumbling. • All of which implies that...
U.S. Geological Survey Worst Case Melting/Sea Level Rise • If all land ice were to melt, sea level would rise by at least ~ 68 meters (~156 feet) = Greenland (7m) + Antarctic (61m). • During Late Cretaceous ~ 86 million years ago, CO2 level was ~1100 ppm, ~3 times today’s level • Average surface temp ~22°C, ~8°C warmer than today. • Sea level was well over 200 meters (656 feet) higher. • Tectonic activity in most oceans spawned volcanoes that pumped, extruded, lava onto the sea floors, building submarine mountain ranges that increased sea levels more than is possible today. www.mpimet.mpg.de/presse/faqs/wie-stark-steigt-der-meeresspiegel.html
Worst Case Warming 700 million years
Average global temp Year 2005 T~14.8°C
Overshot Phanerozoic CO2 levels and global temps inferred from changing paleogeography by C. R. Scotese
Average global T, today 14.8°C = 58.5°F
Phases: Earth Saved by Water Vapor Reduction in Arctic Sea Ice Extent
Stabilising climate to avoid dangerous climate change — Hadley Centre
Alaskan Tundra Travel Days
Carbon Cycling: Permafrost • In Arctic region, permafrost (gray) stores carbon, unless thaws. • New growth in Arctic at higher temp traps CO2, whereas decomposition and hydrate breakdown release methane & CO2.
Methane (CH4)
Wildfires in Americas • Mountains already losing winter snow pack weeks ahead of time from Himalayas to CA Sierras, drier in summer. • Increased temp: increased evaporation, dryness
Northern Boreal Forests
“Earth’s green crown” encircles northern hemisphere, covering 1.5 billion hectares, or 11 percent of Earth's land surface. • Between 50 and 90 percent of existing boreal forests likely to disappear as a result of doubling of atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide: higher temps. • Higher temps: increasing insect infestations, evaporation, dryness, wildfires
Forests: It’s All in the Timing • Managed forests were C sinks during last century. • Managed-not as diverse: more vulnerable to insects. • Aging managed forests: more vulnerable to fires. • Potential net release of C from degrading forests equal to 1/3 of C now in atmosphere.
Much of tropical land ecosystem may become scrub and desert, no longer serving for regulation of C. • On timescale through 2100, fast C release from deforestation in tropics may completely overwhelm slow C uptake in high latitudes, even though in the very long term the biosphere may contain more C under high CO2 conditions. But we’re releasing far more C that was stored in fossil fuels over 100s of millions of years.
CO2 “Greening”: Harvests Increase?? • Even with a doubling of CO2, grain yields increase less than 10% outside of controlled laboratory conditions. • In developed countries able to irrigate, harvests may increase until temp ~5 °F higher, then decline with larger increases in temp, probably before 2100. • In equatorial regions, crops already close to the temp for maximum harvests, so harvests decrease with further increase in temp beyond present temp.
Carbon Cycle: Upsetting Balance Red arrow = rapid fossil fuel burning
koshland-science-museum.org
Processes Related to Atmospheric Composition
CO2 Levels
www.grida.no/climate/vital/22.htm
Increasing Clouds’ Net Effects Uncertain
High thin, cool
Low Thick Clouds reflect solar E into space
Amazon Reduction of cloudiness due to smoke aerosols from biomass burning. Precipitation crucial to rain forest.
Thermohaline Circulation Currents Orange shallow warmer current Blue deep colder current
Atlantic circulation gets accelerated and pulled N by sinking in N Atlantic. Without thermohaline circulation, Atlantic circulation would continue, forced by anti-cyclonic air circulation, but slower, further S. Shutdown: Europe & NE USA too cool for optimal harvests. Rest of world would continue warming.
Reduced Salinity of North Atlantic Waters www.acia.uaf.edu
Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation versus Fresh Water Input
Fresh Water Forcing in Sverdrups
Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Tony Blair, MP
P(Thermohaline Shutdown)
Thermohaline Circulation vs. Temp Increase
Projected global warming required to shut down thermohaline circulation is 2.3°C.
Acidifying Oceans • Damage to marine calcifying organisms such as corals and calcareous plankton
• Reduced transport of calcium carbonate to marine sediments, reduced absorption of CO2 by oceans
Coral-Oriented Sea Life Coral Bleaching • Corals live only 1-2oC below their upper thermal limit. • Average tropical ocean temps 1oC-3oC warmer by 2100
Australian Gastric Brooding Frog Female swallows fertilized eggs; ceases feeding; stops secretion of HCl; tadpoles hatch in stomach. Discovered in 1972, extinct 1985: fungal infection due to increased UV radiation through shallower ponds, weakening immunity.
Since 1880 Average 1961–1990 temp
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Ozone • Shields Earth from 95% of UV.
• CFCs deplete ozone: One chlorine ion can destroy 100,000 (O3) ozone molecules • If ozone decreases, less UV absorbed in stratosphere; harvests decrease; stratosphere cools and shrinks. • More UV absorbed in troposphere; GHGs in troposphere heat and expand it, increasing extreme weather events. • Economy benefited from retrofits to accommodate CFC substitutes and implementation of efficiencies.
Impacts of Global Temp Increases • Now about +ΔT 0.5°C: Increases in extreme weather (storms, droughts, floods), and other effects such as melting, already being experienced globally. • ΔT 1.5°C: Greenland’s Ice Sheet melting rapidly: 2xΔT • ΔT 2°C: Increased water stress, sea levels rising, spread of dengue and malaria, species extinction rate climbs as regional ecosystems unable to adapt rapidly enough to temp increases. • ΔT 2.5°C: West Antarctic Ice Sheet melting rapidly. Thermohaline circulation collapse likely, slowing Gulf Stream further, and moving it far enough south to reduce temps in North Atlantic region. • ΔT 2–3°C: Amazonian rainforest collapses (stomata), feedback cycle; decreasing harvests of major food crops, grains
Tremendous Challenges Bring Tremendous Spiritual Opportunities • Climate change = Loss ==> Grief: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance of the reality of probable loss, experiencing the pain of the loss, reinvesting in the new reality. • Lessons civilization could learn: Creation is not only a natural resource to be exploited, not only for our enjoyment and entertainment. • Creation is the eternal in us; we are the eternal in nature; we are one. • Nature is to be revered: Creation salvation.
Scientific Method
Temp Changes: Δ°F = ? Δ°C • “Δ1°C” means “change in temp of 1°C”. • Δ1.8°F = Δ1°C • Δ3.6°F = Δ2°C • Δ5.4°F = Δ3°C • Δ18°F = Δ10°C • Δ°F = 1.8 X Δ°C = ~ 2 X Δ°C • a°F=(b°C X 1.8°F/°C)+32°F comes from: • T boiling - T freezing = 212°F -32°F = 180°F = 100°C -0°C
Projected Change in Permafrost Boundary AD 2090
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
Sensitive to temp increases since just below freezing in a layer that’s four feet thick. Methane 21X more potent as a GHG than CO2, averaged over 100 years. Release counters increased uptake by flora.
Venues Seeking opportunities to speak to various groups including business and political Author of donated presentation: Sylvester Johnson, Ph.D.
Slides, How to Reduce Emissions, Further Topics
Council on Agriculture, Science and Technology Recommends
Problem: Bacteria break down synthetic fertilizer to nitrous oxide, which has 310 times the Global Warming Potential of CO2. Synthetic fertilizer N energy-intensive to produce, transport, apply.
Use legume fertilization instead of synthetic. And increase N usage efficiency.
Increase carbon storage (sequestration) by increasing % of organic matter in soil, leaving roots in ground.
Reduce land clearing.
More usage of bio-fuels, grass pellets
Capture and burn methane from manure, but majority of dairy methane comes from digestion by cattle.
On-Farm Wind Turbine
Greenhouse Heated with Biodiesel Waste Vegetable Oil
Grass Pellets from Marginal Land
Insects and the Environment
Insects cold-blooded.
Temperature influences reproduction rate, development, survival, distribution. Mites decimating bee populations.
More generations per season: faster development of resistance to insecticides, more applications of insecticides.
Integrated Pest Management practices even more important, to avoid poisons
Fungal Infections More Challenging
Intense rainfall washes most fungicide off after only 10 minutes, so increased number of extreme rainfall events could mean more fungicide applications needed to control diseases.
Increased humidity favors fungal spore production, accelerating epidemic development.
Wheat and oats have been found to be more susceptible to rusts at higher temps.
Heat Stress Affects Livestock
Heat stress occurs for temp and humidity at which animal cannot maintain normal body temperature, becomes feverish, lowering productivity.
Select more readily digestible feed ingredients to lower heat production during digestion.
Water intake may increase by 20% to over 50% during heat stress
Install misters or sprinklers to wet the animal’s skin.
Added expenses for livestock industry
Livestock Farming Major Emissions Source
According to United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, livestock farming generates more heat-trapping gasses than transportation.
9% of human-related CO2, 37% of all human-induced methane [with 21 times Global Warming Potential (GWP) of CO2], largely produced by the digestive system of ruminants, 65% of nitrous oxide [with 310 times the GWP of CO2], and 64% of ammonia contributing to “acid” rain.
6.5+ billion people; livestock is 40% of global agricultural output.
Methane emissions: Biogas power stations to burn methane from decomposition of manure still don't address methane from ruminants’ digestive system, the majority.
Livestock Inefficient Food Source
Livestock farming occupies 30% of Earth’s entire land surface, mostly for permanent pasture but also including 33% of global fertile land for producing feed.
20% of pastures are considered degraded through overgrazing, compaction and erosion, advancing desertification.
70% of the acreage of former rainforests in Amazon have been converted to grazing.
Extensive water pollution: livestock wastes, antibiotics and hormones, chemicals from tanneries, fertilizers and the pesticides used to spray feed crops.
Further substantial public health risks, because animal diseases occasionally also infect humans, example bird flu.
Full-cost pricing for water, elimination of other subsidies
Greenhouse Gases that We Increase
CO2 Capture and Storage (Sequestration)
Although CO2 capture is being implemented in power plants abroad now, if tech is still judged insufficiently proven in USA, could build power plants “CO2 capture ready” to enable retrofit in near future.
Build to scrub more sulfur from the flue gas emissions than regulations require, since low sulfur level needed for CO2 capture.
Build highest possible thermal efficiency plants. Subcritical steam technology relatively inefficient. US utilities experienced poor plant reliability using supercritical steam in 1960s, before all the bugs had been ironed out. Supercritical steam technology more efficient by around 20%, has been well proven in power plants in Europe and Japan, better suited to CO2 capture.
Leave spare land on site for location of the CO2 capture equipment to be installed in near future.
Investment versus Impacts
Coal releases more CO2 per unit of energy than any other source.
However, coal burning will represent the major increase in fossil fuel usage through 2100.
Investment in CO2 capture by power stations, and in other efforts to reduce emissions or transition to renewable energy sources costs far less than damages due to emissions increasing warming, melting, sea level, and storm severity.
CO2 Capture Costs
Application of CCS to electricity production, under 2002 conditions, is estimated to increase electricity generation costs by about 0.01 -0.05 US dollars per kilowatt hour (US$/kWh), depending on the fuel, the specific technology, the location, and the national circumstances.
Higher expense if need to retrofit plants built using subcritical steam.
Geological Storage
Hazards result from leakage of CO2 from storage site to the surface and arise from three distinct causes
Elevated gas-phase concentrations in the near-surface environment.
Effects of acidic dissolved CO2 on groundwater chemistry
Effects that arise from the displacement of fluids by the injected CO2
Injected CO2 migrates up dip maximising dissolution & residual CO2 trapping
CCS is generally regarded as less desirable than: energy efficiency improvements, use of non-fossil energy sources
CCS: Geological Storage risks
Possible CCS Systems
Examples of Proposed CO2 Capture Projects
BP Carson DF2 project, California- 500 MW petroleum coke gasification, capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start-up 2011
Future Gen project, USA- 275 MW coal IGCC, capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012
Saskpower project, Saskatchewan, Canada- 300 MW lignite fired power plant, oxy-combustion CO2 for EOR or saline reservoir storage: Start up 2011
BP Miller-Peterhead DF1 project, UK- 475 MW natural gas fired power plant, capture CO2 for enhanced oil recovery (EOR): Start up 2010
Centrica project, UK- 800 MW coal-fired power plant, capture CO2 for EOR: Start up 2011
RWE project, Germany- 450 MW coal IGCC, capture for saline reservoir storage of CO2: Start-up 2012
France's Eramet, U.S. Alcan and Norway's Norsk Hydro, Norway- 400 MW coal-fired power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011
Shell/Statoil Halten project, Norway- 860 MW natural gas power plant, post-combustion capture CO2 for EOR: Start-up 2011
Overview of CO2 Capture Processes
Population: Demographic Transition
Design for Efficiency Can Greatly Reduce Energy Usage
Green Buildings
Passive solar design for green buildings (www.nesea.org).
Energy audit consultants could assess building performance (Performance Systems Contracting in Ithaca) to identify priority improvements.
Buildings can be made more efficient by plugging air leaks and improving insulation, resulting in substantial savings, since cooling and heating cost the majority of building energy expenses.
Houses can become power producers via the renewables listed above. Solar power economical even in New York State.
Heating/Cooling Green Buildings
Passive solar design: windows on S side. Utilize overhangs to shade during summer, yet allow light from lower sun into interior during winter. Thermal mass (dark colored concrete, brick) moderates temp extremes by storing heat. Absorbs and stores heat during day, cooling rooms; releases heat slowly at night in winter. Cools during day in summer (www.nesea.org).
Plant trees to block wind in winter, cool in summer.
Bring insulation, installations up to Energy Star.
Base heating on solar thermal or geothermal.
Fuel pros and cons: Methane (natural gas) most efficient, cleanest fossil fuel, but increases C pool used in C cycle. Wood draws C from storage, transport, particulates harm health, so not a large scale solution.
Near Zero Carbon Footprint
Monitoring and Evaluation Systems
Residents Pay Almost No Energy Bills
Climate Change Education
Education has a multiplier effect as more people, more voters, learn about the reasons for transitioning.
In addition to purchasing carbon offsets for gasoline and jet fuel from www.terrapass.com
Tax-deductible donations directed to the Global Change Education Project of the Museum of the Earth at Paleontological Research Institute of Cornell University, contact info at www.priweb.org
New exhibit, with components communicated to sister museums, so huge multiplier. No $ to me, a volunteer.
The amount donated could be large, to offset a lifetime of fossil fuel usage with unintended consequences. “Unintended” since this isn’t about guilt or perfection; it’s about making a difference.
Solar Ovens
Developmental Myths (Richard Levins)
Backward is labor-intensive, modern is capital intensive
Diversity is backward, uniform monoculture is modern
Small scale is backward, large scale is modern
Backward is subjection to nature, modern is control of nature
Folk knowledge is backward, scientific knowledge is modern
Specialists are modern, generalists backward
The smaller the object of study, the more modern
Not So Fast Fixes: Will Scotty Beam Us Aboard?
Proposals: Space solar shield, or pumping CO2 into oceans, or blasting sulfates into atmosphere…
Problem of scale: Cost many $trillions, since:
Infrastucture to burn fossil fuels huge
While capturing concentrated CO2 from smokestacks is financially feasible and necessary, the infrastucture to separate diffuse CO2 from the atmosphere would have to cost many $trillions.
Many competing demands for funding $
Not only current demands, but $ will likely need to be devoted to increased struggles over resources
New needs for $ to mitigate impacts: irrigation systems & dikes, emigration due to sea level rising
Paths to Transition
Tremendous Need for Change Brings Tremendous Political Opportunities
Climate of change: Political will for transitioning growing, which means political opportunity.
Merits bipartisan support, since concerns national security as identified by Pentagon, regarding thermohaline circulation. Transitioning strengthens USA by reducing energy dependence on Middle East. Installing renewables creates jobs, stimulating economy (www.ApolloAlliance.org). Export renewable energy devices, instead of import.
USA needs to transition to encourage other countries to follow suit.
Political Opportunities
Strong legislation has been introduced, the Waxman Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642) in the House and the Sanders-Boxer Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309) in the Senate. Both mandate an 80% reduction from the emissions of 1990 by 2050, reducing a few percent per year.
Scientists’ published predictions are based on the more conservative results of computer modeling, but modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and from methane hydrates. Impacts will possibly accelerate more rapidly and with more severity than predicted.
Even meeting the 80% goal, the world will be fortunate if the damages are limited to published predictions. For the best chance to avoid worse damages, it’s imperative to enact laws that have not been compromised from the 80% goal.
Steps to Transition, Personal
Substituting fluorescent for incandescent bulbs can save 2/3 of lighting energy. Just doubling lighting efficiency nationwide would save more than the power from 50 nuclear reactors.
Vacuuming dust from coils of refrigerator and air conditioner removes insulation, increasing efficiency of heat transfer.
Cold water laundry detergent allows laundry to be washed in cold water, saving 90% of energy, better for clothing. On-demand water heaters heat water directly without the use of a storage tank, avoiding the standby heat losses of storage water heaters.
Plugging all entertainment equipment into a power strip makes it convenient to switch off to prevent keeping built-in transformers warm 24/7.
Transportation major source of USA’s emissions. Inflating tires to optimum increases miles per gallon. Hybrid vehicles store energy during braking to use less fuel.
3Rs: Reduce purchases. (Do I really need this?) Reuse (mugs, canvas shopping bags). Recycle what’s left.
Consumer Power
Transition to renewables can pay for investment over time, then pay dividends.
Consumers drive change. As more renewable markets get demonstrated by leading consumers, more businesses will invest in production of renewables, with economies of scale increasing efficiency of production and reducing cost for follow-on consumers.
Several ESCOs (Energy Service Companies) supply electricity from renewable sources.
Carbon offsets balance out auto and flight emissions by funding renewables: www.terrapass.com
Carbon Trading Delaying Strategy
In emissions trading (“cap-and-trade”), the carbon emitted is capped. The overall amount of caps gets reduced each year. Companies exceeding cap buy credits from those producing less than cap, in a “trade”.
However, effective action requires reducing emissions at source, not trading.
Market variation and volatility of carbon trading hamper budget planning.
Regressive, since costs spread across incomes.
If slows economy, depresses labor market.
Offsets Counterproductive
Carbon offset or credit means paying someone else for reducing emissions, to compensate for one's own. Offsets, however, may actually build in net warming.
Planting trees to store carbon equal to consumers’ emissions. Inexpensive since solar power employed in photosynthesis over decades of growth, during which warming occurs due to consumers’ emissions acting to trap heat. So builds in increased warming. Near-term reduction at source much more beneficial.
Offsets excuse usual practices with regards to emissions. Funds invested in offsetting projects reduce amounts available for renewable energy.
Carbon Tax Effective & Efficient
Carbon tax: adds definite cost to carbon content of fossil fuels, reducing energy cost variability from cap–trade.
Tax gets applied upstream at sources of fossil fuels. Fewer entities taxed; minimal bureaucracy required.
Income tax drags on the economy; carbon tax positive in long term.
Short term: part of revenue used for labor–intensive efficiency improvements to housing for low income and elderly, pumping up labor market and economy.
Makes renewable energy sources more competitive.
Unlike cap-trade, tax does not in itself set a goal for emissions reduction. However, carbon tax policy tool to arrive at a goal. It does so more effectively and at less cost than capricious cap-trade.
Can be made progressive by using revenue to reduce lower level income taxes more than higher level.
Cap–trade regressive, slows economy, depresses labor market. Labor lobby should advocate carbon tax!
Worldwide Coal Protocol
Limited storage: proposed sites for storage leakage of << 1% per year.
Low cost of coal: added cost not likely to delay for years.
Conventional impractical to retrofit.
Lifetime of about fifty years, shut down early, investment problematic.
Construction rate > fifty plants/year worldwide, urgent.
Energy efficiency, renewables: fraction built.
“Carbon–capture ready” (CCR). Practical to retrofit.
Montreal. Worldwide protocol suspending conventional, new only CCR.
Worldwide protocol CCR simpler and faster to negotiate than agreement covering all heat–trapping emissions.
CCR cost more: World Bank makes loans to developing countries covering part of extra expense.
In developed countries, governments guarantee partial loans.
Protocol compliance: inspections by international teams to assure CCR.
During transition, shortages avoided by investing in renewables and efficiency.
Worldwide protocol signed ASAP to avoid committing to 50 years of unacceptable releases.
Tremendous Need for Change Brings Tremendous Opportunities
Food Choices Affect Resources Used
UNFAO reported that livestock farming generates more heat-trapping gasses than transportation.
Since production of plant-based foods consumes far fewer resources, it’s worth considering health benefits of increasing consumption of those foods, while reducing consumption of animal products to at most a deck of card’s worth a day, a single serving.
Such personal changes could eliminate over a ton of CO2 emissions per year, saving more energy than switching to a hybrid car. Multiply by 6.5+ billion people.
On website ClimateHealth.net, 2 books by MDs are listed that describe the scientific basis for health benefits of plant-based foods.
Everyone
Everyone has used fossil fuels, unintentionally contributing to global warming. It might be worth considering that everyone could support the transition to renewables with personal effort and resources.
Otherwise, CO2 increases will likely continue, with damage rates accelerating, possibly more rapidly and with more severity than usually predicted, since computer modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, and for methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and methane hydrates.
Biblical dominion means respect, creation salvation, stewardship, not trashing creation.
And while there’s life, there’s hope.
Cornucopia from Capitalism
Business Opportunities
Tremendous need for change creates tremendous business opportunities to do well doing good, prospering by transitioning.
As in the home, investments can pay for themselves over time, investments such as improving facilities performance efficiency with the furnace, insulation, and air leaks, etc., then pay dividends.
Use same or more power, complementing fossil fuel with renewables. Governmental rebates or tax incentives are often available for installing renewable energy sources.
Major businesses are urging strong legislation. The Climate Action Partnership is an alliance of environmental groups and businesses that have come together to call on the federal government to enact legislation, businesses such as Alcoa, Caterpillar, Duke Energy, Pacific Gas and Electric, DuPont, General Electric, and Lehman Brothers investment bankers.
Business Opportunities
Here are reasons they’re taking this initiative:
Institutional investors are demanding climate risk disclosures, providing concrete motivation for businesses to act to reduce risk, to transition.
To establish a framework for defining industry standards for equitable treatment of competitors, businesses need to support strong legislation to limit heat-trapping emissions with a well-defined timeline for goals and market-based incentives such as tradable emission permits, legislation such as the Waxman Safe Climate Act (H.R. 5642) in the House and the Sanders-Boxer Global Warming Pollution Reduction Act (S. 309) in the Senate. Both mandate an 80% reduction from the emissions of 1990 by 2050, reducing a few percent per year.
Industry standards will reduce the concern among shareholders about the uncertainty and risk that currently surround planning regarding climate change.
Business Opportunities
Scientists’ published predictions are based on the more conservative results of computer modeling, but modeling is extremely difficult for ice sheet crumbling, methane release from decomposition of melting permafrost tundra and from methane hydrates. Impacts will possibly accelerate more rapidly and with more severity than predicted.
Even meeting the 80% goal, the world will be fortunate if the damages are limited to published predictions. Therefore it’s imperative to enact laws that have not been compromised from the 80% goal.
Energy cost volatility hampers strategic planning. Businesses can simultaneously increase their own energy independence and that of the USA by improving energy efficiencies and installing renewable energy sources, reducing energy cost volatility for increased cost control and profitability.
Business Opportunities
$10 bills on sidewalk: managers focused on task at hand
Even more effective usage of raw materials reduces waste and cost.
Make products from recycled materials better than products from raw materials: carpets, less outgassing from recycled.
2B people worldwide remain without electricity: sell 1W solar PV panels with 95% energy–efficient LEDs for $50. $/kW-hour far less over several years than the fuel for kerosene lamps that are also fire hazards.
Consumers already leading market change. Growing markets growing businesses – ESCOs, local startups –. Timberland shoe company's carbon footprint label.
Triple Bottom Line: Economically viable, socially responsible, and environmentally sound.
Energy Security Increases National Security
Climate change concerns national security as identified by Pentagon, regarding thermohaline circulation.
Transitioning to renewable energy sources strengthens USA by reducing energy dependence on Middle East.
Congress Voting (Energy) Independence
Renewable Energy Sources
Consumer Power
Activism
Tremendous Challenges Bring Tremendous Spiritual Opportunities
Climate change = Loss Grief: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance of the reality of probable loss, experiencing the pain of the loss, reinvesting in the new reality.
Lessons civilization could learn: Creation is not only a natural resource to be exploited, not only for our enjoyment and entertainment.
Creation is the eternal in us; we are the eternal in nature; we are one.
Nature is to be revered: Creation salvation.
Sustainability
CO2 Emissions from USA 2005
U.S. Energy Consumption
U.S. Electric Power, 2004
NYS’s Electricity in 2003
Nuclear Power Stations
Brilliance of Humanity
Nighttime USA
World Population Growth
Family Planning Resources
Further increases in population will likely increase overall usage of fossil fuels.
Limitation of family size to zero net population growth (birth rate = death rate) will have a multiplier effect.
In addition to purchasing carbon offsets for gasoline and jet fuel from www.terrapass.com
Tax-deductible donations to highly effective Education and Resources of PlannedParenthood.org will have a multiplier effect.
The amount donated could be large, to offset a lifetime of fossil fuel usage with unintended consequences. “Unintended” since this isn’t about guilt or perfection; it’s about making a difference.
Agenda
Reasons for urgency in reduction of heat-trapping GHG (GreenHouse Gas) emissions
Justification for 80% reduction of heat-trapping emissions from 1990 levels by 2050
How to make a difference in GHG emissions
Further topics can be addressed as time allows
Outreach
If you’re interested in spreading the word about this non-profit educational resource, please copy and send out the suggested text on the Outreach page to email lists.